A momentous change is on the anvil and history is going to take a historical turn. Five assembly elections just concluded are more of an evidence of something bigger than just the victory or mauling of parties and alliances. We need heed this symbolism is up to us but if we do then we can see that paradigmatic changes are in the offing. The election results from five states namely, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, West Bengal, Assam and Puducherry have showed with thumping exuberance that issues written off just before the elections by exit polls and by our friends in the media are in fact issues that have moved the electorate. Corruption was billed as dead and gone an issue to reflect in the election results but Karunanidhi has been upstaged and those who forecast that Jayalalitha will come back with a narrow margin are biting dust. The electorate has mandated that corruption is the issue. Positive voting instead of negative has been the hallmark of these results. West Bengal and Tamil Nadu saw positive voting; Assam saw fractured positive voting while Puducherry too witnessed positive voting. The electorate has come of age and it has administered a terse snub to all the wheeler and dealers of politics. Performance will and will only matter.
The people have given Congress party a clear cut message. That if it seems to stand with corruption it will have to pay the price. Congress was standing tall with the corruption of DMK. Is the Congress party and Congress government two different entities? If yes then the party has no hold over its government. If there is no difference then gods save this party. When it was high time to chuck Raja out it was not done. When it was done the credit went naturally to the CBI. Congress went on erring in West Bengal. Rahul attacked Mamata on her own turf though a quick realization of this folly made him distance himself from this. Congress has lost more than half the seats that it contested in West Bengal. Pranab Mukherjee gave the lame excuse that it was due to the fact that Congress fielded those candidates who were against an alliance with Mamata.
Congress lost elections in Andhra too. In Assam also it was not the Congress of Sonia Gandhi or Manmohan Singh that has won but it has won because of Tarun Gogoi and tireless efforts of Parvez Hashmi with the Muslims and the redoubtable strategy of Digvijay Singh. Digvijay had declared that Congress was going to win as the opposition is divided. He made the right analysis but only after the end of final p9olling as any declaration of such sort before could have spurted the opposition to forge some sort of unity.
The Congress can rejoice over its victories in Kerala but what is important is how broad its majority is. Had the Left not been diseased by infighting Congress would have found it difficult to form government. And in any case it has become the nature of Kerala electorate that it changes governments every five years.
Sonai now needs to ponder over how she can infuse life in the Congress organization. If not then it will face the same fate as in West Bengal or Tamil Nadu. Sonia is known for her sagacity but in spite of this she is not able to catch the pulse of the common man of India. Even the leaders within Congress find this riddle hard to comment upon. Congress for that matter is a very disciplined party as its leaders trade allegations and bickering within the confines of closed doors. Congress has a large number of MPs but they are all cooling their heels off either on foreign trips or in the safety of their homes. Congress has the resources but no will and no blueprint.
BJP on the other hand is rejoicing at the fall of Congress seeing it as the direct legatee of all ground that Congress looses. It is blind to its own failures. President Nitin Gadkari has emerged as an ineffective and incapable leader who has neither been able to enthuse his workers nor has been successful in putting an end to factionalism. He has not been able to goad any of the top leaders like Advani, Sushma Swaraj or Arun Jaitley to plunge in party building activities. Now he is billing his hopes on Uma Bharti. But he will not let her go to MP rather if she wants to return to the party she will have to work in UP. It seems no leader in UP is capable to rejuvenate the party in the state. All the more this will be the first instance in Indian political history where leader of a party is treated as an IAS officer who will be transferred from one state to the other. This shows the mental bankruptcy of Nitin Gadkari. BJP has many of its seats in these assembly elections. Assam is the case in point.
Winning or losing is not as important as the role of opposition is. BJP has failed to live upto the mark of an active and live opposition. A lack luster President will not do. Two people who can lead the party today are Lal Krishna Advani and the second is Jaswant Singh. Jaswant might be baffled as to why he was thrown out of the party and also why was he taken back but in case Advani refuses to wield the mantle it must be passed on to Jaswant Singh. He reminds of liberal Atal Bihari Vajpayee and can reactivate the BJP.
The Left has wandered away from its basic principles. It was known not from Kerala but from West Bengal. 34 years of long rule and this kind of exit! It will have to revisit and return to its old principles and work for the downtrodden which means not just the workers but Dalits, minorities and farmers also. Then only it can hope of any redemption. The Left had no hold in the Hindi speaking belt. In Kerala the next election results will depend upon who succeeds Achutanandan. In west Bengal as of now there is no leadership worth the name. VP Singh had advised Jyoti Basu that the Left should fulfill its promises done to the Muslims in the past 34 years or it would be difficult to return to power. Basu advise Buddhadeb Bhattacharjee but he did not heed the advise and the results are open for all to see. The Muslims shifted to the TMC. I had conversations with A B Bardhan and Prakash Karat and both of them agreed with me that muslim question needed to be dealt with. Either they did not heed the advise or that theirs was not heeded by Budhhadeb Bahattacharjee. In any case it resulted in complete rout for the party.
The Congress having stood with Karunanidhi has sealed its own fate. Though it cracked down on the errant and corrupt leaders or CMs but too little too late.
Now what do the results of Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Andhra Pradesh? In Tamil Nadu though Jayalalitha might have won she too is not that clean. She was deposed last time precisely because of the corruption charges. But Karunanidhi and his family looted the state like personal fiefdom and that put the people in doubt. If DMK would have lost by a narrow margin, it would have sent a wrong message across the country that corruption as an issue is dead. People were expecting DMK to be mauled. And the people of TN have behaved as true Indian citizens who exercise their votes maturely. Also the electorate in West Bengal has performed its duty well. After 34 years the people for the first time have exercised their right to vote freely and fairly. And for this reason the role of Election commission in west Bengal needs to be lauded.
In Puducherry and Andhra Congress has been told that its decisions were wrong. Congress leaders knew beforehand that their decisions were wrong but there is no tradition of self correction in the Congress. After Indira Gandhi this tradition fell in disuse.
Now Mamata has been given the chance in West Bengal and she needs to prove herself. Dr. Lohia used to say that a government which is not able to set the ground for its agenda in the first six months, would never be able to do anything in the next four and a half years but for hurting the people. So she has six months to prove herself. These very six months will prove whether Mamata will complete her term as a successful CM or such who drubbed the people’s hopes in the Hoogly.
The coming general elections will not be easy for either BJP or the Congress. The Congress is insipid and then BJP is reeling under the dead weight of its President. It is billed that Rahul will lead the party to 200 victories in 2014 elections and will become the next PM. But for Raul 2014 will be difficult. The BJP too is ailing. It has not been able to instill confidence in the people. The NDA alliance has fallen into disuse. It may either be due to the fact that Sharad Yadav’s efforts are being scuttled by the BJP or that he himself is complacent as of now. It is beyond doubt that Sharad Yadav has some kind of political strategy for having decided to keep NDA under suspended animation. The crux of the matter is that these elections are warning bells for the political parties. It is a warning for them to mend ways.
